Who can predict the future? Not me, but I can tell you some things to expect in Arkansas politics in the coming months.
Governor-elect Sarah Huckabee Sanders can expect to get most of what she wants in the next Congress. This is what happens when a new governor is elected with her 63 percent of the vote and works with Congress where her 82 percent of its members are part of her party.
What does Sanders want? One of the big things for him is that he now has more school options. She calls this “parental empowerment.”
Sanders wants to make it easier for parents to send their children to nonpublic schools, possibly with the help of state funding. But this is expected to cause quite a stir from public schools, its advocates, and some lawmakers, including her party.
Given the conflicting realities, we can expect the end result to be significant, but not a fundamental change. Again, this is a prediction, not a prediction.
Public school teachers, on the other hand, can expect significant increases in minimum teacher salaries to come out of the legislative session. Arkansas is chasing neighboring states like Mississippi that are paying more.
What else can we expect from the upcoming legislative session? For one thing, a big new prison. The state’s current one is full, and as a result prisoners are being held in county jails and held to capacity.
Arkansas is in crisis, and the state posted a budget surplus last year of $1.628 billion. The debate is not whether states should build new prisons, but how big they should be. Related to this, we can also expect changes to parole laws in states where prisoners spend only a fraction of their sentences in prison. It would be helpful if there were many beds.
Given the aforementioned surplus, we can expect cuts in state income taxes, which Sanders said should be phased out. Businesses will likewise seek lower corporate income taxes.
On the other hand, however, we can also expect groups representing various public needs to seek some of these surpluses. Starting with hospitals, some of which have problems. Bo Ryall, president and CEO of the Arkansas Hospital Association, said three of the state’s roughly 85 acute care hospitals are “at risk of closing,” and that he has six to eight hospitals. He said it could take 30 to 60 days before he was in a dire state.
They are in this situation because they are unable to operate like any other business by passing the costs onto their customers, even though they face increased labor and supply costs. Instead, you have to take whatever major payers like insurance companies, Medicare, and Medicaid pay.
Medicaid, which serves low-income individuals and other individuals, has not increased its $850 per day hospitalization fee since 2007. Some hospitals earn more than that, but not enough. Expect Ryall and his hospital members to demand more money from MPs.
Another big question in Arkansas politics is whether Governor Asa Hutchinson will run for president.
He clearly wants to do it and knows for sure that it’s probably his last chance at 72 now. If he can raise the money to put on a credible race, I expect he will do it, but I don’t know yet if that’s the case. No. He said in an interview at the office on Dec. 20 that a decision will be made in the first quarter of this year.
Education, prisons, tax cuts, and hospitals will be a big part of Arkansas politics this year. The governor-elect dominates the scene in her first session. Meanwhile, a resigning governor could run for president, as several of the governor’s recent predecessors have done.
Let’s see what else the future holds. Expect the unexpected.
Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist published in 18 outlets in Arkansas. Email brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow @stevebrawner on Twitter.
