The US and China are likely to go to war over Taiwan in 2025, a senior US military official has warned.
U.S. Air Force General Mike Minihan said in a memo Friday to the leaders of his Air Force Mobile Command about the set of circumstances that would embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan. outlined.
“I hope I’m wrong. My intuition says we’ll fight in 2025. Xi has secured a third term and set up a military council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential election is in 2024, giving Xi a reason US presidential election is in 2024, and President Xi will be America in turmoil Xi’s team, reasons, and opportunities are all It’s geared up for 2025,” Minihan wrote in a note, first reported by NBC News.
As head of Air Mobility Command, Minihan oversees the Air Force’s transport and tanker fleets. In his memo, he urged staff to “consider their personal concerns” and be more proactive about training.
“If you’re happy with your approach to training, you’re not taking enough risks,” he wrote. He instructed the airmen to “fire the clip at a target of seven meters with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality is paramount.”
“Aim for the head,” he added.
China’s large-scale military exercises
“These comments do not represent the Pentagon’s views on China,” a U.S. defense official told Reuters in response to the memo.
Although China considers Taiwan its own, Taiwan operates as an independent democracy and has never been ruled by Beijing. In recent years, China has flown more fighter jets near Taiwan, including large-scale exercises conducted during US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August.
It also has a growing military presence in the South China Sea, including bases built on artificial islands made from coral reefs in the disputed waters. Some of these reefs are claimed by the Philippines, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said earlier this month he was “extremely concerned” by US-China tensions over Taiwan, citing Manila and the United States. He added that he expected military ties to deepen.
If China invades Taiwan
In November, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned of the economic consequences if China invaded Taiwan and the US took away the semiconductor industry, which is “totally dependent” on computer chips. “Losing access to Taiwan’s semiconductors would probably hurt US GDP by around 5% to 10%,” he said. “It’s an immediate Great Depression.”
Earlier this week, Bill Gates called China’s rise “a big victory for the world” and warned, “I think the current US mindset about China is reciprocal, a kind of lose-lose mindset.” He added that the current hawkishness of China in the United States could become “self-fulfilling in a very negative way.”
In an op-ed published Thursday wall street journal, Seth Cropsey, former deputy undersecretary of the Navy, also warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan. Like Minihan, he mentioned his 2024 Taiwan elections. He pointed out that Taiwan’s vice president, Lai Chingde, who is an ardent supporter of Taiwan’s independence, was named chairman of the ruling party last week.
“China will almost certainly try to interfere in Taiwan’s 2024 election to prevent Mr. Lai from winning the presidency,” Cropsey wrote. “If he wins, Beijing could move swiftly into aggression.”
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