A controversial memo from a U.S. Air Force general predicting war with China in 2025 raises a growing disconnect between U.S. civilian and military leaders’ views of the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. It may reflect that
In a memo that began circulating online over the weekend, General Michael Minihan said, “I hope I’m wrong. My gut says we’ll be fighting in 2025.”
Responsible for the Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC), a 5,000-man logistics-focused force, Minihan said that aside from vague allegations that the next elections would be held in the United States and Taiwan, the war between the United States and China had been plausible. has not provided any evidence for his predictions regarding It would create an opportunity for Beijing to try to reunify the autonomous islands with the mainland. China has long claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory.
“Aim for the head”
The general’s memo orders forces under his command to step up training and readiness to prepare to “deter China and defeat it if necessary.”
In addition to the broader instructions for AMC logistics readiness, Minihan adds some specific orders, including the following: Aim for the head. ”
A former C-130 pilot, Minihan has a deep understanding of the Chinese military, having served in other senior positions in the U.S. military, including Deputy Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, from September 2019 to August 2021. increase.
civil-military division
Minihan’s comments appear to contradict statements by senior Biden administration officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Austin told reporters earlier this month that the United States was watching China’s increasingly aggressive actions against Taiwan, but downplaying the possibility of a short-term attack.
“We believe they are trying to establish a new normal, but whether or not that means an invasion is imminent, I seriously doubt it.
In a statement sent to VOA, Pentagon spokesman Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said, “National defense strategy is a challenge for China to pace the Pentagon and work with allies and partners to keep the peace.” We are making clear our continued focus on a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Asked specifically about Minihan’s memo, the Pentagon forwarded a statement purportedly by an unnamed Pentagon official, stating that “these comments do not represent the Pentagon’s views on China.” .
Other warnings from Top Brass
But Minihan is not the first senior officer to warn of a looming conflict with China in recent months. In October, Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations, suggested that the U.S. military should prepare for a potential conflict with China early this year.
“You can’t deny that,” said Gilday. “I have no intention of becoming [an] Saying it causes a stir, but you can’t make it go away. ”
At a hearing in 2021, Admiral John Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, was questioned about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. He replied, “In my opinion, this issue is much closer to us than most people think.”
Last December, he said those surprised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year should consider the possibility of a similar attack by China on Taiwan.
“This could happen in the Pacific,” he said while attending the Reagan Defense Forum. “Don’t be surprised that it can happen.”
“extremely stupid”
Michael O’Hanlon, director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution, told VOA that he believes Minihan’s memo was a grave mistake and should have been more severely condemned by the Pentagon.
“It confuses the importance of deterrence with the possibility of war, which I think is very unwise and potentially dangerous. [for creating] It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said. “This contradicts the US government’s policy of not calling China a looming enemy. It calls China a ‘pacing challenge’ or a ‘most important strategic competitor.’ The words were carefully chosen from the perspective of considering and deterring the possibility of war with China. But you don’t have to think about that imminent thing. ”
O’Hanron expressed concern that Minihan’s attitude toward China has taken root in the United States.
“I’m afraid he’s just a blunt version of an attitude that’s becoming more and more common,” O’Hanlon said. We have the proper vigilance about China, which is good, but we must avoid demonizing China, because the initial crisis is only the beginning of the inevitable battle, and we are in a position of dominance. I have to avoid thinking that I should get over it someday, that kind of attitude is a little too broad for my taste.”
No evidence of imminent threat
“There is no evidence to support claims that China is seriously considering attacking Taiwan in the next few years,” Timothy R. Heath, senior international defense researcher at RAND Corporation, told VOA.
But Heath sees a wide gap between senior military officers’ views of China and the attitude of the U.S. government.
“A startling difference between the assessments released by senior political leaders and those of military leaders expressing much higher levels of alarm and fear that an attack is coming or is imminent. There is,” he said.
Heath said a combination of factors appeared to have contributed to the discontinuity. Political leaders tend to see China not only as a strategic threat, but as a trading partner and potential collaborator in the fight against climate change, he said. Both have higher priority in Beijing than reunification with Taiwan.
Heath said military leaders tend to focus on the obvious fact that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has become increasingly sophisticated and dangerous in recent years. They also have concerns close to home.
“There is a political angle here, with Congress looking to cut the defense budget,” Heath said. “These generals, I hate to say it, have an incentive to remind leaders of potential major security threats that require strong defenses.”
Comments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China
Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, was asked to address the general’s comments at a news conference on Monday.
“Taiwan is part of China,” she said. “Resolving the Taiwan issue is China’s issue. The real cause of renewed tension across the Taiwan Strait is [Taiwanese] The authorities’ continued action to seek U.S. support for “Taiwan independence” and an agenda among some in the U.S. to use Taiwan to contain China.
“We urge the United States to abide by the one-China principle and the three Sino-US joint communiques, keep the promises made by the U.S. leaders not to support ‘Taiwan independence,’ stop interfering in Taiwan affairs, We urge you to stop military contact with Taiwan and stop creating new factors that could lead to tension in the Taiwan Strait.”
