S.how many years Countries, even continents, have ways of giving them a push in new directions. I decided that I had to hold on to the The doubling of oil prices that followed his decade of stagflation in 1979 led to a shift away from the cozy working relationship between states and companies to a larger role for the market and the private sector. Will 2023 be one of those years? It comes as a decade of low interest rates ends, high energy prices and inflation return to the global economy, and war looms over Europe. It also comes in the wake of one of the deadliest pandemics in history and as China retreats from closer global integration.
If these trends portend far-reaching political change in rich countries, then political shifts to the left only as a reaction to the predominantly center-right governments that have dominated rich democracies over the past decade. It seems that it has already happened. At the meeting of his G7, a group of rich countries, in the Bavarian Alps in 2022, Joe Biden looks around the table (see photo), from center left he counts five other leaders. We were able to: leaders in Canada, France, Germany and Italy. And when it comes to Japan, Fumio Kishida describes himself as a foreign policy pigeon. By contrast, when Biden’s Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, met his counterparts in 2010, they all came from the right or center right.
Of course, this could just be an unusually synchronized swing of the pendulum rather than the beginning of a wider shift. The right-wing victory in the Italian general election in late 2022 is a reminder of the importance of national exceptions. Still, there’s reason to think there might be something more serious going on than just hitting someone in power who happens to be. It crosses borders.
In wealthy democracies, public opinion appears to be shifting to the left. In the United States, the percentage of respondents to a Pew Research Center survey who said banks had a positive impact on the economy rose from 49% in 2019 to 40% in three years. decreased (see Figure 1). Technology companies saw similar declines, while large companies saw a larger decline. Only a quarter of his Americans thought he was NetPlus. This seems a far cry from his 1980s belief that private enterprise would solve many of the world’s problems.
Anti-corporate sentiment is just the beginning. More than half of respondents in the US, UK, France and Germany told Pew that their economies needed major changes or a complete overhaul. Most of those calling for greater reform described themselves as leftists. Public aspirations for radical change may be underpinned by fears of climate change and the belief that not enough is being done about it. In another of his Pew polls conducted in 19 countries, three-quarters of his respondents said climate change was a major threat, making it a bigger concern than the global economy or the pandemic. (see Figure 2). At first glance, people want more than business as usual.
The possibility that 2023 will prove to be a tipping point of sorts is backed up by tectonic movements that, if rarely in the news, will lead to far-reaching changes. For decades, the working-age share of the world’s population has increased, creating more workers than children and retirees, resulting in a so-called “demographic bonus” to the global economy. It has put downward pressure on interest rates and wages, resulting in widening income inequality, faster economic growth, and higher valuations of big companies. However, as economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan point out, these trends can change, sometimes rapidly. The working-age share of the world’s population has fallen for a decade, interest rates are starting to rise, and corporate values are declining. At least, it’s down from 39, as measured by the adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 companies. From the end of 2021 until December 27, 2022.
But whether all this will lead to a major reorientation of democratic politics is another matter. To that end, changes in public opinion and the economy alone are not enough. Turning points in the past were made possible not only because political parties endorsed new beliefs, but also because they were able to make the necessary compromises to implement their ideas. , authority, or will is not clear.
Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan scored landslide victories in the 1980s, but such decisive results have become rare. From 1980 to his 1996, the American presidential winner won the popular vote by almost 10 points. From 2000 to her 2020 margin he was less than 2.6 points. Joe Biden has the added problem of managing a divided government. In Britain, the ruling party won an average of 48% of the vote in his 1945 to his 1960 elections. Since 2010, his share of winners has been less than 40%. Voter turnout is plummeting in most wealthy democracies. Political parties cannot count on popular mandates. And even if you do get one, it may not last long. In the April 2022 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron outscored Mariner his pen by 59% to 41%. In parliamentary elections two months later, his party lost a majority, and Le Pen’s national rally won more new seats than any other party. Like Mr. Biden, Mr. Macron is weakened by government divisions.
In 1960s Europe, political parties were mass movements with millions of members. more than this. take the UK Her six parties in parliament (excluding those in Northern Ireland) now have a combined membership of 846,000, less than the Royal Bird Conservation Society. Voters are also fickle, and few view political parties as a means to advance their political goals. rice field. BBC “It has become a lifestyle rather than a principled view of what government should do”. It is an expression.
In the absence of large memberships and elections leading to increasingly fine margins, the incentive in most democracies is for parties to keep as many of their followers happy and risk-free as possible. For those looking for a new direction in politics, this is not good news. There may be a desire for broader change, but governments and hopeful opposition parties will be wary of capitalizing on it.■
