(Center Square) – A study by economists at Stanford University found that learning losses due to the pandemic could reduce students’ lifetime earnings by $70,000.
Eric Hanushek, a senior fellow at the Paul and Gene Hannah Institute at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, predicts that the study, based on math test scores, could cost $28 trillion over 100 years. .
Hanushek compared the mathematics scores of the National Assessment of Educational Progress of 8th grade students in 2022 with the scores of students in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Diagram from Eric A. Hanushek’s The Economic Cost of the Pandemic.
“Across the country, mean grade 8 mathematics scores declined across all states, with a national average of 8 points lower in NAEP scale score points,” said Hanushek. I have written“This was enough to erase all gains made since 2000.”
He estimated the loss as “equivalent to 0.6 to 0.8 years of schooling lost.” He further estimated that the lifetime earnings of students who were in school during the pandemic could be reduced by $70,000.
“Evidence on the labor market value of skills suggests a 5.6% drop in lifetime earnings for the average student during the pandemic,” wrote Hanushek. “This figure compares the expected return if his math performance dropped by 8 points to what he could have expected had it not been for the pandemic.”
Falling lifetime incomes could significantly reduce the state’s gross domestic product over the next few years.
“The impact of the pandemic means that the workforce of the future is ill-equipped to contribute to economic growth,” he wrote. “Even if education returns to pre-pandemic quality, cohorts of students going through the workforce of the future will be less skilled and less accomplished than they were both before and after. , historical observations lead to slower growth compared to what would have happened had it not been for the pandemic.”
“The abstract nature of the argument belies the seriousness of the problem and the certainty of future economic damage,” Hanusek said. Not only will the economy suffer, but individual states will also experience contraction in economic activity.”
