K-12 students in Virginia estimated to lose $312 billion in lost revenue due to school closures due to pandemic

Courtesy Edward Hanusek

James C. Sherlock

Over $312 billion in present value.

that’s the estimate It was published Eric A. Hanushek of Stanford University discusses the expected economic losses resulting from school closures due to the pandemic in Virginia.

Virginia students in the COVID cohort are expected to see an average 5.5% decrease in lifetime earnings.

History shows that economic losses are perpetual unless schools are improved. Simply returning schools to pre-pandemic performance levels will not erase the lost learning.

Recovery from the pandemic requires rapid and decisive improvements in schools.

The number is an estimate, but a scientific one. Dr. Hanusek is perhaps better qualified to make his estimates than any other economist in the world.

In overview, the $312 billion present value of projected losses to the Virginia economy from school closures due to COVID represents about 7 years of state revenue Realized from Virginia sources in 2021 and 2022.

Even money pales in comparison to the developmental and emotional damage done to children.

But it makes me feel better.

Estimates of similar losses in California exceed $1.2 trillion.

Dr. Hanusek Paul and Gene Hanna Senior Research Fellows at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is internationally recognized for his economic analysis of education issues, and his research has had a broad impact on education policy in both developed and developing countries. Received the 2021 Education and Research 1st Dan Award.

He has authored or edited 24 books and over 250 articles. He got his Ph.D. He holds a PhD in economics from MIT.

He strong supporter Bridging the learning gaps in schools.

he predicted Economic loss in September 2020 if schools remain closed. Now he measures them.

Impact of shutdown. Arguments for and against school closures began almost immediately and were thoroughly proclaimed.

in his broader sense national assessment As the rest of this article demonstrates, Dr. Hanushek said the longer each school district closed its schools, the more damage it caused.

Dr. Hanushek predicts economic damage to the nation, but he did so by assessing two factors.

“First, we had consistent data across states on how learning patterns changed.

Second, there are substantive economic analyzes related to the US labor market that allow us to directly extrapolate the impact of the pandemic. ”

Considering the work presented and the qualifications of the analyst, his assessment is compelling.

NAEP score. One of his data sources is NAEP reading and math losses from 2019 to 2022.

The NAEP sample is large enough that reliable results from these tests are available in all states and the District of Columbia. NAEP testing was administered in her fourth grade and her eighth grade.

his analysis

considers 8th grade grades only. This is because this performance is directly linked to an economic analysis that provides information about future costs for individuals and the economics of observed differences in student performance.

In other words:

Average 8th grade mathematics scores fell across all states, and the national average dropped 8 NAEP scale score points (see Figure 1). This was enough to erase all gains made after 2000.

Declines in reading and math skills were correlated across states, with states with lower declines in math skills also tending to have lower declines in reading skills (see Figure 2).

There were exceptions. Students in Washington, DC, New Jersey, and Arizona had relatively little learning loss in reading compared to large losses in math.

He also reveals that:

“The magnitude of the learning loss was essentially independent of the level of score in 2019. Mexico and Washington, DC) and Alabama had relatively low losses, although the three highest-scoring states in 2019 (Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Minnesota) experienced the biggest losses.”

lost profit

Dr. Hanusek said:

Large studies show a simple fact: people with higher achievement and better cognitive skills earn more (Hanushek et al. 2015). Evidence suggests that the value of higher achievement persists throughout a student’s entire professional life.

The US rewards skill more than almost any other developed country. The high value of skills in the United States reflects a dynamic, technology-driven economy where workers are continuously adapting to new jobs and new ways of doing things (Hanushek et al. 2017).

But when looking at rewards for high skills in the same way, the United States penalizes less skilled people more than other countries. I am giving

Evidence on the labor market value of skills suggests that the average student’s lifetime earnings are 5.6% lower during the pandemic. Figure 4 compares the expected return for an 8-point drop in math performance with what we could have expected had it not been for the pandemic.

The impact of the pandemic on future earnings will also vary dramatically depending on which state a student was in during the pandemic. Figure 4 shows the rate of decline in income by state based on various learning losses found in NAEP scores. (These calculations take into account the state’s average skill level. We rate skills similarly across the country, reflecting the fact that many people move away from where they were educated.) .)

He says that average losses mask large variations in individual losses. But this also hides bad news.

Existing data show that the impact on disadvantaged students, who tended to be at a disadvantage during the pandemic, is significantly greater. However, the exact magnitude of this difference is not known.

Overall impact by state The author goes on to say that the state’s economic growth is highly dependent on the quality of the state’s labor force.When

The impact of the pandemic means that the workforce of the future is ill-prepared to contribute to economic growth. Even if education returns to pre-pandemic quality, there will be cohorts of students entering the workforce of the future with inferior skills and performance.

Figure 5 shows estimates of GDP losses by state by the end of the century.

Then calculate those losses as the running sum of those losses. See Figure 6, which opened this review.

Will these losses go away? TEconomic cost calculations assumed a return of all school performance to January 2020 levels and permanent NAEP losses measured in spring 2022.

However, some argue that children are resilient enough or that parents and schools will coordinate to compensate for those losses.

The existing evidence, although largely international, suggests that a mere return to previous normal levels will make the loss permanent.

The evidence that is now in the spotlight has been amassed from prolonged strikes by teachers’ unions abroad.

He also points out that research shows that US school breaks have a greater impact on math than on reading. This is exactly what his NAEP estimate of learning loss due to the pandemic shows.

ConclusionHe said

There is overwhelming evidence that students in schools during and after the shutdown and adjusting to the pandemic are achieving at levels significantly lower than would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic.

He concludes that although schools were not necessarily responsible for all losses, recovery from these losses necessarily rests with them. not.

If schools do not improve, the economic impact on individuals will continue and nations will suffer from an underskilled society. And while some states have less learning loss to make up for, no state is compelled to take on the task of improving schools.