Moderna (mRNA 1.89%) We are making good progress. Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, biotech stocks have fallen more than 40% from their previous highs. But in the last three months, they’ve skyrocketed.
The news is still not good for the company on the COVID-19 front line. Moderna expects COVID-19 vaccine sales to hit his $18.4 billion in 2022. The reality is that COVID-19 will almost certainly become less important to Moderna. But the vaccine strain may have another big growth story.
next vaccine race
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a major health problem. It is highly contagious and is a concern, especially for young children and the elderly.Analyst SVB Lee Link It is estimated that the RSV vaccine market could exceed $10 billion by 2030, with older populations accounting for at least $7 billion of the total opportunity.
The COVID-19 pandemic has launched the biggest vaccine race in history among biopharmaceutical companies. RSV appears to be the next vaccine race. There is currently no vaccine licensed against the virus.
Pfizer (PFE 0.33%) was the first company to achieve U.S. regulatory approval for its COVID-19 vaccine and is also poised to become a leader in the RSV vaccine market. In August 2022, the major pharmaceutical company announced positive results for its RSV candidate, RSVpreF. The company filed for approval of the vaccine with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in December. A decision is expected in May.
Additionally, Pfizer reported excellent results for RSVpreF in maternal immunization in infants last November. The company is the only pharmaceutical company with an RSV vaccine for both infants and the elderly at or near regulatory approval.
But Pfizer isn’t the only company targeting the senior market. GSKMore (GSKMore -0.65%) It also announced positive results from late-stage studies of its RSV vaccine candidate. The UK pharmaceutical company expects an FDA approval decision in early May.
Amazing Results with Moderna
Moderna can now be officially added to the leader group for this race. On Tuesday, the company reported results from a Phase 3 study of vaccine mRNA-1345 in immunizing older adults against RSV.
The study included more than 60,000 adults aged 60 and over in 22 countries, and Moderna, USA found that mRNA-1345 was 83.7% more likely in preventing RSV lower respiratory tract disease, defined by 2 or more symptoms. said to have achieved efficacy. The investigational vaccine showed 82.4% efficacy against RSV lower respiratory tract disease with 3 or more symptoms. Similar to Spikevax, the new candidate is a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine.
The reported efficacy of mRNA-1345 was slightly higher than the 82.6% efficacy of the GSK candidate. It also far surpassed the 62.7% effectiveness of his RSVpreF on Pfizer. However, due to differences in clinical trial designs, these efficacy figures are not always perfectly comparable.
Moderna plans to submit mRNA-1345 for regulatory approval in the first half of 2023. Assuming no roadblocks in the approval process, the company could add another blockbuster vaccine to its lineup soon.
time to buy?
Does the promise of a successful RSV vaccine mean it’s time to buy Moderna stock?
Moderna’s market capitalization now stands at nearly $75 billion. That’s a pretty big deal for a company whose COVID-19 vaccine sales this year are guaranteed to be just his $5 billion. Approval of mRNA-1345 could help Moderna regain his growth in 2024 and 2025. However, competition from Pfizer and his GSK for that indication could be fierce.
Indeed, Moderna’s pipeline includes other late-stage programs. The company can deliver good news from its experimental flu and cytomegalovirus vaccine candidates. But it’s too early to count on positive results.
Some investors don’t touch Moderna with a 10 foot stick.i am not that Negative for stocks. In my view, Moderna could be a big winner in the long run due to its mRNA technology. But you can’t estimate the company’s earnings over the next ten years with anything close to a warm, vague feeling. For now, in my view, staying on the sidelines with this resurgent vaccine stock seems to be the best approach.
SVB Financial provides credit and banking services to The Motley Fool. Keith Speights has a position at his Pfizer. The Motley Fool invests in and recommends Pfizer and his SVB Financial. The Motley Fool recommends GSK and Moderna. The Motley Fool’s U.S. headquarters has a disclosure policy.