© Reuters Yashin Ebrahim
Investing.com – A stronger Chinese economy is often a key factor in global growth. But as China prepares to grow its economic strength after years of stagnation under the threat of the new coronavirus, some warn this time will be different.
Morgan Stanley said in a report Wednesday that “positive spillovers to the rest of the world as China resumes business will be history and as aggregate global demand slows as a result of widespread monetary tightening.” It won’t be the same,” he estimated. Global economic growth will slow to 2.6% this year from his forecast of 3.0% in 2022.
As the second largest economy in the world, it’s no surprise to understand why China has such a strong influence on the global economy. China, which accounted for nearly one-fifth of her global growth last year, far outstrips its closest rivals. Data from World Economics Research (London) show that the US accounted for about 13.5% of global growth last year, followed by India at 9.3% and Japan at just 3.4%.
History shows that when China enjoys accelerated economic growth, global imports and global trade accelerate, supporting the global economy.
But not this time. And COVID fingerprints are everywhere.
Years of stringent Covid lockdowns and restrictions under Beijing’s ‘zero-coronavirus’ policy have forced many Chinese to stay home and wear no socks rather than spend their extra income, leading to a record resulting in significant savings.
According to data from the People’s Bank of China, deposits held by Chinese households rose to a record RMB 17.8 trillion ($2.6 trillion) in 2022 from RMB 9.9 trillion in 2021.
Armed with a wave of cash, Chinese consumers are expected to loosen their purse strings and spend lavishly on services that have been closed during the pandemic. A future acceleration of growth that is service-led rather than goods-led is likely to distort China’s growth inward rather than outward. That’s not good news for those who hope China will boost global economic growth.
“Our China team now sees a faster and stronger growth rebound pushing GDP growth to 5.7% in 2023, but {Morgan Stanley said, ‘Services are more tradeable than commodities. We should expect a lower global trade beta because of the low .
But some countries have a more constructive view of how the reopening will boost the global economy. HSBC Holdings (NYSE: ), according to Bloomberg.
Still, tightening monetary policy by global central banks, which weigh on the global economy, will also limit the positive boost from China’s recovery, albeit to a limited extent.
The World Bank recently pointed to “one of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycles in recent history” and warned that “the global economy is slowing to the point that it could plunge into recession”. Did.
