It is now well known that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) The December quarter was marred by severe headwinds to the iPhone supply chain caused by production disruptions in Zhengzhou, China.
So, ahead of the tech giant’s first quarter 2023 results (scheduled for December quarter – February 2nd), Monness analyst Brian White predicted that iPhone revenue will fall “negatively” following eight consecutive quarters of growth. We anticipate falling into the “territory”. White expects iPhone sales to drop 5% year over year to $67.93 billion. The analyst also believes that Mac sales will also decline 9% from the same period last year to $9.86 billion given the “pent-up demand” seen in the previous quarter. However, these declines will be somewhat offset by higher revenues in Services, iPads, Wearables and Home & Accessories.
Overall, White expects Apple to “meet” its revenue forecast of $123.03 billion (down 1% year-on-year) and EPS forecast of $1.99. Both are slightly ahead of Street’s expectations of $121.91 billion and $195 million for him, respectively. White’s estimate takes into account his 36% consecutive revenue growth, which is lower than his four-year average of 50% quarter-over-quarter growth in the previous quarter.
One quirk that might get Apple’s hands on this report is that the quarter was 14 weeks instead of the usual 13 weeks. The 5-star analyst said, “Apple flagged this extra week in its Q4 2022 conference call, but we don’t think the impact has been fully appreciated, and the turmoil in Zhengzhou. It shows a potential means of partial offset.”
For the second quarter of fiscal 2023, White forecasts revenue of $96.72 billion, down 1% year-on-year, and EPS of $1.46. Consensus estimates are $98.46 billion for him and $1.50 for him respectively. White believes Apple will benefit from “sluggish iPhone demand” following the Zhengzhou crisis, but expects this to be offset by consumers becoming “thrifty” in 2023. .
Overall, White repeats his buy rating with a price target of $174, suggesting a ~29% gain in the stock over the next year. (to see white achievements, click here)
Overall, 27 analysts agreed with the AAPL’s review over the past three months, with 22 to 5 favoring a buy over a hold, giving a strong buy consensus rating. At $173.37, Street’s average goal is about the same as White’s. (look Apple stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the featured analyst only. This content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
