- Apple announced its financial results on February 2nd, apple stock (AAPL) – Get Free Report Face this important event weaker than usual.
- Apple Maven lays out some key numbers for AAPL investors to keep in mind as they prepare for this momentous reporting day.
- Don’t forget to follow Apple’s earnings results and conference call on the Apple Maven live blog after the closing bell on February 2nd.
Figure 1: Apple: Keep an Eye on These Key Figures on Q1 Earnings Day
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(Read more about Apple Maven: Apple Stock: Layoffs imminent?)
Apple’s earnings day on the horizon
Apple will report its first quarter earnings on Thursday, February 2nd after the closing bell. As always, Apple Maven will be covering the event in real time via their live blog. Mark your calendars!
To kick off this quarter’s earnings preview series, I’ll talk about some key numbers that AAPL investors should keep in mind as they prepare for earnings day. Below, we look at the P&L forecast for the first quarter of the fiscal year and preview how Apple’s stock price will react to the earnings announcement.
Apple Stock: Weak Headlines for Earnings
Apple stock is well below its all-time high, entering earnings season. Shares are currently trading at $135, a significant 25% below where they were in early January 2022.
Heading into earnings day, the AAPL has underperformed broad equity indices since the last earnings season. Apple’s stock has fallen -6% in the last three months. Nasdaq (QQQ) – Get Free Report and the S&P 500 (spy) – Get Free Report +1% and +5% respectively.
See the 3-month chart below (AAPL is the blue line) provided by Stock Rover.
Figure 2: Apple, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back since last earnings season.
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What to expect from Apple in Q1
There’s no doubt that Apple’s first quarter fiscal year print looks a little uglier than the Cupertino print that investors are accustomed to.
Apple already provides guidance on key P&L numbers. On the company’s fourth quarter earnings call, CFO Luca Maestri provided the following outlook:
- Earnings: We don’t have specific numbers, but we expect a 10 percentage point currency headwind and a slower sales performance compared to September.
- Gross margin: 43.0% at the midpoint of the guidance range.
- Operating expenses: $14.8 billion at the midpoint of the guidance range.
- Other expenses: $300 million
- Tax rate: 16.5%
For reference, revenue growth was 8% in the September quarter (we expect it to be lower this time around). Last year’s first quarter gross margin was 43.8% (expected to decline). His Opex for the comparative quarter 2022 reached $12.8 billion (expected to see a significant 16% increase in costs).
To keep the situation a bit vague, Apple announced shortly after sharing the above guidance to update investors and analysts. “We expect iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments to be lower than previously expected,” the company said.
Exactly what this means for revenue and remaining P&L remains to be seen. But now, according to Seeking Alpha, analysts are predicting the following for the first quarter:
- Revenue of $122.4 billion, down -1.3% year-on-year
- EPS was $1.96, down -6.5% YoY
How AAPL Finds Support
The consensus numbers above aren’t impressive, especially given how well Apple has been doing since the start of the pandemic. shows the rate.
Figure 3: Apple revenue and EPS growth since March 20.
DM Martins Research
But modest expectations could be the key to unlocking a potential bull market in Apple stock. If the bar is set low enough, even mediocre results can be considered good news. This is especially true when his AAPL underperforms benchmarks as it has in the past few weeks.
Those who follow the charts may notice that Apple stock appears to be heading for resistance. This is either bad news for the bulls in the short term or a sign that a well-received earnings call could push his AAPL above this cap.
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Apple will report its fiscal first quarter earnings on February 2nd. Analysts have been de-risking estimates to reflect the many challenges of late, but how do you think the Cupertino company will perform against expectations?
(Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. The author may own one or more of the stocks mentioned in this report. Also, if the article contains affiliate links These partnerships do not affect your editorial content. Thank you for supporting Apple Maven.)
